Probability
Probability
Probability:
· Offer another way of thinking about the examples offered.
· Offer a related example.
· Make comments if you feel that something has been overlooked.
· Point out connections to your own experience.
· Approx 125 word each response
Probability1
What way does probability relate to your own career or industry, or an industry that you are familiar with?
Probability is used in real estate all of the time. One common example is determining the probability (the chance) that a property will sell; which is correlated to days on the market and price. Most often if a seller increases their price, then the amount of time the house will remain on the market is projected to increase and the probability that the home will sell most certainly can decline. Therefore, understanding how to price a house is critical. Also, the housing market is constantly changed due to other factors such as demand, inventory, interest rates, stock market, economic conditions, and even weather. Projections can be made based on Events that occur, interest rate increases for example, which change the probabilities for the housing market. It is a very obvious trend that with the increase of interest rate, along with inflation as we see today, that the probability of the housing market remaining at high demand will taper off.
How does thinking about probability impact personal decision-making in your own life or household or lives of your family, friends, etc.?
In my personal life I use probability every day. I begin each day with a high probability that I will go to the gym first thing in the morning because on average I go five to six days per week; while checking the weather forecast will determine the probability of wearing a jacket. Every important decision that I make needs to be weighed, analyzed and possible outcomes projected. Usually, I fall back on previous experiences to help calculate the probability of a desired outcome (or undesired) based on the decision that I want to make. If for example there is late night event that I am invited to, but I am married with children and have responsibilities the next day, I can refer to similar events from the past to infer and project what would happen. Based on that information, I would know the probability that I will not be able to uphold my responsibilities the next day is very likely.
Response:
Probability2
As a budget analyst in an IT program, we use probabilities to some extent for budget planning. The IT system that we maintain includes many software and hardware components. Not all of the equipment is on the same refresh cycle, and different components have different useful lives. Furthermore, we don’t always replace equipment according to this timetable. We do some calculation of probabilities on equipment failure. If a piece of equipment has a high likelihood of failure (but it’s not a piece of equipment that we would plan to replace that budget year if we didn’t have to), we can include its replacement cost in a contingency pot of funding. We also use probabilities from the perspective of being able to collect all of our funding. Some of our agencies are voluntarily participating in the program. These agencies can easily come and go, and we rely on their financial contributions. Each year, we calculate the probability of these agencies staying in the partnership. We build ourselves a safety cushion in our budget and include the costs of those agencies’ contributions that have a very high likelihood of departing the program. Using probabilities helps us do contingency planning in our program.
Probability has had impacts on my personal decision-making. For example, I purchased a laptop last year from Best Buy. The laptop came with a short manufacturer’s warranty, but I was asked if I wanted to purchase an additional Geek Squad warranty. The warranty cost seemed high, compared to the cost of the laptop. Before making a decision, I quickly considered the likelihood of damage occurring to my laptop. Because it was going to be used primarily in my home, and I wouldn’t need to travel much with it, I figured there was a minimal chance that it might get damaged. Therefore, I declined the additional coverage. I have also used probabilities in choosing health insurance. When I was young, single, and thankfully healthy, I chose one of the least expensive health insurance plans, taking a chance that I wouldn’t need much in the way of medical treatment. I am now married with two children. During the last open season, I selected a separate dental plan. I thought that the probability that some members of my family would need some dental work (aside from bi-annual cleanings) was high enough to merit buying this dental plan.
Response:
Probability3
1. Probability and soccer have a lot to share; no wonder there are many sports betting websites. Bookmakers establish odds by determining the probability factor of the outcome of an event. In a soccer game, there are not only three possible outcomes. Some teams are better than others; thus, the margin to bet on the best team will eventually be low as the probability they have to win a game is higher. Reports are made after every game played, thus, we have access to the statistics. Players occupy different positions on the field, and the probability of a defender scoring a goal is much lower than an attacking player. Teams study the overall statistics of opponents they will face during the season; thus, during the week of preparation for each game, they work on strategies to avoid certain players from getting successful. For instance, they will focus on working more on the defensive line as the other team has a player with a higher rate of goals scored for each game he plays. Therefore, they are aware that the chance of this player scoring a goal is higher than any other player on the team. Penalty kicks are another good example to talk about. Goalkeepers usually study the side players who shoot the ball; therefore, they are prepared for the event and the risks they should take when deciding where to move.
2. Probability is well considered when talking about decision-making on and off the field (a soccer player’s workplace). Nutrition, for example, is a factor that follows along with the players and their expectations of game time. A player during the season should have a guided diet in order to avoid injury, as it has been proven that consuming crap food has a higher probability of weakening the muscles, and therefore, it is easier to get injured if you are not eating appropriately. The probability of injuring yourself is also related to the lack of muscle strengthening, so it’s important to do some extra workouts at the gym. We may also say that the success of a player on the pitch, like scoring goals, assisting players, or defending well, may lead to a higher probability of getting called up for the national team, as well as a potential transfer to a different team or an adjustment in salary. Like any other career, it’s important to evaluate the decisions in order to know how to handle the consequences. Knowing the probabilities of actions is important for decisions and outcomes.
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