Posts
Moving avg
Moving avg: Moving avg
| Trucks Loaded by Month |
| Month |
Trucks loaded |
Moving Avg (3) |
Moving Avg (6) |
Naïve (one period moving) |
Weighted Moving Avg |
| Jan-20 |
398 |
| Feb-20 |
401 |
| Mar-20 |
404 |
| Apr-20 |
407 |
| May-20 |
410 |
| Jun-20 |
413 |
| Jul-20 |
416 |
| Aug-20 |
419 |
| Sep-20 |
422 |
| Oct-20 |
413 |
| Nov-20 |
432 |
| Dec-20 |
411 |
| Jan-21 |
424 |
| Feb-21 |
442 |
| Mar-21 |
434 |
| Apr-21 |
426 |
| May-21 |
435 |
| Jun-21 |
452 |
| Jul-21 |
476 |
| Aug-21 |
461 |
| Sep-21 |
451 |
| Oct-21 |
437 |
| Nov-21 |
425 |
| Dec-21 |
412 |
| Jan-22 |
452 |
| Feb-22 |
441 |
| Mar-22 |
451 |
| Apr-22 |
466 |
| May-22 |
466 |
| Jun-22 |
452 |
| Jul-22 |
459 |
| Aug-22 |
461 |
| Sep-22 |
465 |
| Oct-22 |
| Nov-22 |
| Dec-22 |
| 1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for a three-period moving average, a six-period moving average, a naïve 1-period moving average, |
| and a weighted average forecasts with weights 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1 for the most recent data, the next most recent data, and so forth, respectively. |
| 2. Calculate MAPE for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary. |
| 3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice. |
| 4. Use Excel for all calculations. |
| 5. All calculations should be highlighted in yellow |
Exp smooth
| Average Plant Headcount |
| Month |
Average daily headcount actual |
Forecast with smoothing constant .6 |
Forecast with smoothing constant .3 |
MAPE |
MAPE |
|
|
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Jan-20 |
298 |
| Feb-20 |
301 |
| Mar-20 |
304 |
| Apr-20 |
307 |
| May-20 |
310 |
| Jun-20 |
313 |
| Jul-20 |
316 |
| Aug-20 |
319 |
| Sep-20 |
322 |
| Oct-20 |
313 |
| Nov-20 |
332 |
| Dec-20 |
311 |
| Jan-21 |
324 |
| Feb-21 |
342 |
| Mar-21 |
334 |
| Apr-21 |
326 |
| May-21 |
335 |
| Jun-21 |
352 |
| Jul-21 |
376 |
| Aug-21 |
361 |
| Sep-21 |
351 |
| Oct-21 |
337 |
| Nov-21 |
325 |
| Dec-21 |
312 |
| Jan-22 |
352 |
| Feb-22 |
341 |
| Mar-22 |
351 |
| Apr-22 |
366 |
| May-22 |
366 |
| Jun-22 |
352 |
| Jul-22 |
359 |
| Aug-22 |
361 |
| Sep-22 |
365 |
| Oct-22 |
| Nov-22 |
| Dec-22 |
| 1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for each of the smoothing constants. Assume a January forecast of 298 |
| 2. Calculate MAPE for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary. |
| 3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice. |
| 4. Use Excel for all calculations. |
| 5. All calculations should be highlighted in yellow |
Recommendation here
