Moving avg
Moving avg
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Moving avg: Moving avg
| Trucks Loaded by Month | |||||
| Month | Trucks loaded | Moving Avg (3) | Moving Avg (6) | Naïve (one period moving) | Weighted Moving Avg |
| Jan-20 | 398 | ||||
| Feb-20 | 401 | ||||
| Mar-20 | 404 | ||||
| Apr-20 | 407 | ||||
| May-20 | 410 | ||||
| Jun-20 | 413 | ||||
| Jul-20 | 416 | ||||
| Aug-20 | 419 | ||||
| Sep-20 | 422 | ||||
| Oct-20 | 413 | ||||
| Nov-20 | 432 | ||||
| Dec-20 | 411 | ||||
| Jan-21 | 424 | ||||
| Feb-21 | 442 | ||||
| Mar-21 | 434 | ||||
| Apr-21 | 426 | ||||
| May-21 | 435 | ||||
| Jun-21 | 452 | ||||
| Jul-21 | 476 | ||||
| Aug-21 | 461 | ||||
| Sep-21 | 451 | ||||
| Oct-21 | 437 | ||||
| Nov-21 | 425 | ||||
| Dec-21 | 412 | ||||
| Jan-22 | 452 | ||||
| Feb-22 | 441 | ||||
| Mar-22 | 451 | ||||
| Apr-22 | 466 | ||||
| May-22 | 466 | ||||
| Jun-22 | 452 | ||||
| Jul-22 | 459 | ||||
| Aug-22 | 461 | ||||
| Sep-22 | 465 | ||||
| Oct-22 | |||||
| Nov-22 | |||||
| Dec-22 | |||||
| 1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for a three-period moving average, a six-period moving average, a naïve 1-period moving average, | |||||
| and a weighted average forecasts with weights 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1 for the most recent data, the next most recent data, and so forth, respectively. | |||||
| 2. Calculate MAPE for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary. | |||||
| 3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice. | |||||
| 4. Use Excel for all calculations. | |||||
| 5. All calculations should be highlighted in yellow |
Exp smooth
| Average Plant Headcount | |||||||||
| Month | Average daily headcount actual | Forecast with smoothing constant .6 | Forecast with smoothing constant .3 | MAPE | MAPE | 0.6 | 0.3 | ||
| Jan-20 | 298 | ||||||||
| Feb-20 | 301 | ||||||||
| Mar-20 | 304 | ||||||||
| Apr-20 | 307 | ||||||||
| May-20 | 310 | ||||||||
| Jun-20 | 313 | ||||||||
| Jul-20 | 316 | ||||||||
| Aug-20 | 319 | ||||||||
| Sep-20 | 322 | ||||||||
| Oct-20 | 313 | ||||||||
| Nov-20 | 332 | ||||||||
| Dec-20 | 311 | ||||||||
| Jan-21 | 324 | ||||||||
| Feb-21 | 342 | ||||||||
| Mar-21 | 334 | ||||||||
| Apr-21 | 326 | ||||||||
| May-21 | 335 | ||||||||
| Jun-21 | 352 | ||||||||
| Jul-21 | 376 | ||||||||
| Aug-21 | 361 | ||||||||
| Sep-21 | 351 | ||||||||
| Oct-21 | 337 | ||||||||
| Nov-21 | 325 | ||||||||
| Dec-21 | 312 | ||||||||
| Jan-22 | 352 | ||||||||
| Feb-22 | 341 | ||||||||
| Mar-22 | 351 | ||||||||
| Apr-22 | 366 | ||||||||
| May-22 | 366 | ||||||||
| Jun-22 | 352 | ||||||||
| Jul-22 | 359 | ||||||||
| Aug-22 | 361 | ||||||||
| Sep-22 | 365 | ||||||||
| Oct-22 | |||||||||
| Nov-22 | |||||||||
| Dec-22 | |||||||||
| 1. Generate as many valid forecasts as you can for each of the smoothing constants. Assume a January forecast of 298 | |||||||||
| 2. Calculate MAPE for each forecast. (Use common data periods only.) Insert columns as necessary. | |||||||||
| 3. Recommend a forecast and explain why that is your choice. | |||||||||
| 4. Use Excel for all calculations. | |||||||||
| 5. All calculations should be highlighted in yellow |
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