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# three scenarios

1. For each of the following three scenarios, would you rather:

a. Receive \$100 in one month or \$100 in two months (most people prefer the former)?

b. Be given an excellent meal at a nice restaurant in one month or in two months

(most people prefer the former)?

c. Be given a mediocre meal at a mediocre restaurant in one month and then an

excellent meal at a nice restaurant in two months or an excellent meal at a nice restaurant in one month followed by mediocre meal at a mediocre restaurant in two months (most people prefer the former)?

Assume that you respond as do most people. Explain any inconsistency in your preferences.

2. Churches, schools, and other nonprofit institutions have held jelly bean counting contests where contestants compete for a prize by estimating the number of jelly beans in a large jar. There is evidence suggesting that averages of contestant estimates tend to be superior to specific individual estimates. Why might this be true?